About Shaken

The February 6, Mw 7.7 and 7.6 2023 Kahramanmaras Turkey earthquake sequence affected an area of ~100,000 km2 and significantly deformed hillslopes, which could lead to a chain of secondary hazards in the coming period. This project aims at assessing post-earthquake landslide hazard to inform Turkey's Disaster and Emergency Management Authority to take the required risk-mitigation actions to reduce the impact of secondary landslide hazards and to save people, critical infrastructure, lifelines and food supply chain. We propose to document co-seismic hillslope deformations and identify post-seismic landslide hot spots by developing a transferable artificial intelligence targeting hillslope surface deformations.

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Figure: Spatial distribution of co-seismic landslides overlaid by the two main earthquake epicenters (USGS, 2023a,b), fault rupture (yellow, Reitman et al., 2023) and the USGS composite peak ground acceleration (PGA) map representing the maximum PGA recorded at each location for all quakes with a magnitude 5.5 and larger from the sequence (Goldberg et al., 2023). Major active faults (Emre et al., 2013) are indicated by white lines. EAF: Eastern Anatolian Fault, NAF: North Anatolian Fault.

 
NATO Science for Peace and Security (SPS) Programme

The NATO Science for Peace and Security (SPS) Programme is an integral part of the NATO Emerging Security Challenges (ESC) Division. The SPS Programme develops and implements practical cooperation and enhances dialogue between NATO nations and Partner countries through capacity-building and security-related civil science, technology and innovation. All SPS activities contribute towards the Alliance’s Strategic Objectives, have a clear link to security and respond to at least one of the SPS Key Priorities.

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NATO HQ – Bd. Leopold III B-1110 Brussels – Belgium
You can find further information on our website:
www.nato.int/science
@NATO_SPS
E-mail: sps.info@hq.nato.int

Mission and Objectives

SHAKEN project aims at assessing not only spatial and size distributions of landslides triggered right after the February 6, Kahramanmaras earthquake sequence, but also its long-term effects on hillslope stability, which could lead to a chain of secondary hazards. Specifically, SHAKEN will create a comprehensive landslide event inventory and exploit Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technology to monitor hillslope deformations over the earthquake-affected area. SHAKEN will identify actively deforming hillslopes based on past deformation trends and develop a novel method to predict hillslope deformations for short-term (i.e., 10-day ahead) forecasts derived from atmospheric models. This predictive tool will enable early warnings for potential high deformations that could result in catastrophic failures of critical sites and infrastructure.

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SHAKEN project will have a strong impact on geohazard research and disaster perception and will train a new generation of Earth scientists to:

(i) better understand co- and post-seismic geohazard dynamics in the earthquake affected hillslopes, and
(ii) grow a new perspective in terms of the assessment of hazard chains and risks in understanding the long-term impacts of strong earthquakes on critical sites and infrastructure.

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Monitoring and early detection of potential hazards after such devastating earthquakes threatens human life and are important for the sustainability and safety of critical military base structures, energy-critical structures in the region and for the lifelines like roads, energy transmission lines, dam reservoirs, etc. In this respect, the monitoring system and further integration of AI is aiming to reduce casualties and increase the safety of operating personnel and civilians. In addition, raising awareness of secondary hazards that can be experienced after similar strong earthquakes and a platform that can be developed with similar approaches can help to create a new tool to prevent and counteract and remediate in loco and rapidly the effects of the exposure to various critical situations, including hazard prediction capacity.

There are several scientific and technical deliverables envisaged by this project:

1- Co-seismic landslide inventory

2- Pre-and post-seismic hillslope deformation map of the study area

3- A predictive model targeting InSAR-derived surface deformation rates

4- A new module for the AFAD’s Disaster Risk Reduction System (ARAS) for the dissemination of the project’s outputs

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Participating Institutions

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AYBE_ENGEurasia Institute of Earth Sciences (EIES) is a research and graduate academic institute at the Istanbul Technical University, Türkiye. EIES draws on a deep understanding of Earth, climate, and society to create solutions at a global scale, in collaboration with partners worldwide. EIES largely focus on Geology, Geomorphology, Geohazards, Quaternary Geology, Climate change and Atmospheric and Environmental sciences.

 

ITC_2The Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, was established in 1950 and is located in Enschede, Netherlands. Its main areas of expertise are geo-information science and earth observation for: earth sciences, natural resources, urban and regional planning, water resources, and environment. ITC concentrates on earth observation, the generation of spatial information, and the development of data integration methods.

 

metuThe Geological Engineering Department is academic division at the Middle East Technical University (METU), Türkiye. METU Geological Engineering Department encompasses the professional engineering applications of geology (the science of earth materials and processes) to mineral resources research and exploration, tectonics and structural geology, surface and underground engineering construction problems, groundwater and geothermal energy development and related problems.

 

Lincoln_Lab_iconMIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT LL) Founded in 1951, MIT LL is a Federally-funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC) operated by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology on behalf of the United States Government. Research and development activities focus on long-term technology development as well as rapid system prototyping and demonstration, with core competencies that include (but are not limited to) sensor design and development, integrated sensing systems, signal processing for information extraction, decision-making support, and communications.

 

AWKUM_GEOThe Department of Geology, The Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan (AWKUM). AWKUM is one of the five departments of the Faculty of Physical and Numerical Sciences. The Department of Geology has one of its Strategic Objective of tailoring its academic programs to retain strong responsiveness to basic training in Geological Sciences, and includes the development of a technical system and the ability to recognize interdisciplinary relationships and to transfer observations from the field into models.

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